In a move shrouded in secrecy, Turkey has enacted a comprehensive embargo on the export of weapons and defence-related items to India, a decision underscored by its steadfast support for Pakistan, India’s principal adversary in South Asia. This development, which carries profound geopolitical and economic implications, was discreetly sanctioned during a confidential session of the Turkish Parliament.

The revelation of this clandestine policy emerged from a session of the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee on 10th July 2024. According to the meeting minutes, Mustafa Murat Şeker, the deputy chairman of Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency (SSB), inadvertently disclosed the government’s covert stance on India. Şeker highlighted the sensitivity of the issue, stating unequivocally that no military-related items have been approved for export to India.

Despite concerns about potential fallout if the decision were to become public, Şeker confirmed the existence of the embargo. His remarks were obtained by the Nordic Research Monitoring Network (Nordic Monitor), an organization dedicated to examining issues of terrorism, security, and military affairs.

India ranks among the world’s top arms importers, representing a significant market with annual imports nearing $10 billion. Nevertheless, Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan has led to a complete halt in arms exports to India. Şeker was quoted as saying, “Due to our political circumstances and our friendship with Pakistan, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not give us positive feedback on exporting any products to India, and consequently, we do not grant any permits to our companies in this regard.”

Turkey’s defence industry, a sector experiencing rapid growth and involving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s family, requires prior approval from the military, the SSB, and the Foreign Ministry for any arms sales. The embargo effectively places India on a blacklist of countries to which Turkey is prohibited from selling military and defence items.

This embargo is a reflection of the deteriorating diplomatic relations between Turkey and India, which have worsened significantly over the past decade under Erdogan’s leadership. Turkey’s unwavering support for Pakistan, particularly in its disputes with India, has further strained ties between the two G20 nations.

Turkey’s secretive assistance to Pakistan extends beyond arms embargoes. According to Nordic Monitor reports, Turkey has been instrumental in various clandestine operations, including the establishment of a cyber army designed to influence public opinion and counter criticism of Pakistan in Southeast Asia. This cyber unit was proposed during private talks in Islamabad between then Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu and his Pakistani counterpart Shehryar Khan Afridi on 17th December 2018. The plan received approval from Imran Khan, then Pakistan’s prime minister and interior minister, during the same meeting.

The antagonism between Ankara and New Delhi extends beyond the realm of military exports. It encompasses broader strategic choices in global trade. One notable point of contention is Turkey’s opposition to an economic corridor proposal endorsed by India, the United States, and the European Union at the G20 summit in New Delhi. This proposed corridor aims to connect Europe to India via the Middle East through rail and sea routes.

Turkey’s exclusion from this corridor has fueled its opposition to the initiative, perceiving it as a threat to its role as a critical trade hub. The corridor’s potential to favour regional competitors like Greece has further compounded Turkey’s discontent. In response, Turkey has thrown its support behind China’s Belt and Road Initiative, often referred to as the “new Silk Road,” which aligns with its broader geopolitical strategy.

India, on the other hand, has already taken retaliatory measures. Notably, India has revoked a $2 billion naval deal with a Turkish company, indicating the significant economic repercussions of Turkey’s embargo. This move underscores the broader impact of strained relations on defence contracts and bilateral trade.

The ban’s effect on the Indian stock market and defence-based shares has been noteworthy. Defence sector stocks have experienced increased volatility as investors respond to the geopolitical tensions. Analysts have observed fluctuations in the share prices of key defence companies, reflecting uncertainty about future procurement policies and international partnerships. However, this volatility also presents potential investment opportunities for those willing to navigate the risks associated with geopolitical developments.

Additionally, India’s defence exports have reached an all-time high of Rs 21,083 crore in FY 2023-24, reflecting a growth of 32.5% over the last fiscal year. This surge in exports highlights India’s efforts to become more self-reliant in defence production and reduce its dependency on foreign suppliers, a strategic shift that has gained momentum in the wake of Turkey’s embargo.

Turkey’s covert ban on arms exports to India is emblematic of the complex and often contentious geopolitics of the region. Rooted in a historical alliance with Pakistan and driven by broader strategic interests, this embargo signifies a deepening rift between two major players in the global arms market. As Turkey continues to navigate its alliances and strategic objectives, the implications of this decision will undoubtedly resonate across international relations and global trade dynamics.